Geopolitical tensions on 6.18, gold consolidates strongly, stable observation

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I. Fundamentals:

According to the Israel Defense Forces, Israel has been responding to subsequent attacks by Hezbollah, the most recent being last Sunday when Israeli fighter jets targeted four locations in southern Lebanon. They have warned of a potential severe escalation. Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, stated in a video address last Sunday, "The terrorist organization Hezbollah is continuously escalating its attacks on Israel," and claimed that Hezbollah has launched over 5,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles, and explosive drones towards Israel since joining the conflict. Hagari added, “Hezbollah’s increasing aggressiveness is pushing the situation to the brink of a wider escalation, which could have catastrophic consequences for Lebanon and the entire region... Israel will take necessary measures to protect its civilians until the safety of the border is restored. Regardless, we will ensure the safe return of Israelis to their northern homes. This is non-negotiable.”

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker stated that based on current forecasts, a rate cut by the end of the year is appropriate; it is also possible there will be no rate cut or even two. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve will continue to rely on data, describing the process of bringing inflation back to the Fed's target as a "long road ahead." Due to several Federal Reserve officials maintaining expectations of only one rate cut this year, spot gold prices retreated, at one point falling near the $2,310 mark, ultimately closing down 0.59% at around $2,318.6 per ounce.

Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the ongoing geopolitical tensions have allowed gold to strongly defend the $2,300 level.

II. Technical Analysis: Gold

The chart above is a 4-hour chart of gold. From the wave pattern perspective, gold began its adjustment from the 2450 line above and ended the ABC adjustment wave near the 2287 line. Currently, there is a potential for a new upward trend to unfold. Looking at the MACD indicator from below, the momentum is starting to head upward from the zero axis. Overall, gold is at the end of an adjustment phase under a bullish trend and is beginning to stabilize. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips.

Intraday trading strategy:

Long positions: Consider buying around 2310-2308, with a stop loss at 2302 and targets around 2320 and 2340.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.