These are the S&P 500 historical returns during election years By

According to analysts,Under what circumstances can buying straddle combination make a profit election years can be a time for strong returns in the stock market, with the S&P 500 historically averaging a 10%-20% total return since 1928.

Interestingly, the third year of a president's term seems to be the sweet spot, with analysts noting a median return of 18.08% during that period over the past 95 years. Even the fourth year holds promise, averaging a 9.5% return with a 75% chance of positive gains.

While the full year can be volatile, analysts highlight that the third quarter tends to be the strongest, averaging a 5.21% return, which is roughly 70% of the entire year's average gain. It's important to note, however, that election years since 1928 also see an average annual drawdown of 14.96% for the S&P 500.

Analysts also break down some seasonal trends within election years. In the first half, they state that it is usually range-bound with potentially lower returns.

Meanwhile, it is said to yield stronger returns in the second half, particularly in Q3 and Q4.

When it comes to a Democratic President, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) historically underperforms, while sectors like Energy, Healthcare, and Financials might see gains.

For a Republican President, analysts say Cyclicals, Technology, and Communication Services might outperform.

Overall, equities tend to be the strongest, with small-caps historically edging out large-caps. Analysts say value stocks might lag throughout the year but finish stronger than growth stocks.

Looking specifically at 2024, analysts believe their prediction of a High-Level Trading Range (HLTR) aligns with historical election year trends and is likely to continue until the November election. The firm's year-end price objective for the S&P 500 remains at 5,050.

Statement: The content of this article does not represent the views of FTI website. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investment is risky, so you should be careful in your choice! If it involves content, copyright and other issues, please contact us and we will make adjustments at the first time!