BofA sees potential for a strong dollar rebound on portfolio rebalancing By Investing.com

Bank of America (BofA) analysts highlighted significant currency rebalancing needs that could Dealerlead to a robust rebound for the U.S. dollar. According to their research, there is an expected shift in investment flows into dollar-denominated assets, particularly equities, which have underperformed compared to their European counterparts.

BofA’s analysis suggests a substantial rebalancing inflow into the dollar, quantified as +2.6 standard deviations (σ), while predicting outflows from the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), and Emerging Market (EM) currencies.

This expected rebalancing is based on the conventional 60/40 portfolio model, which is commonly used by financial institutions to maintain a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income instruments. BofA’s methodology indicates an underperformance of dollar assets relative to EUR assets.

The analysts at BofA have recommended hedging strategies in anticipation of these shifts, specifically suggesting 2-week put options on the EUR/USD pair, expiring on April 2, 2025, which is the deadline for the upcoming tariffs.

The recommendation to hedge comes after a period of bullish sentiment on the EUR/USD exchange rate. However, BofA’s recent Fund Manager Survey (FMS) report from March 18, 2025, points to indications of a more structural reallocation away from USD-denominated assets.

This trend may influence tactical allocation bands and could potentially limit the magnitude of the predicted rebalancing flows into the dollar.

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