UBS raises EUR/USD fair value estimate to 1.08 amid yield drops By Investing.com

Euro US Dollar0.05%Australian Dollar US Dollar0.19%

UBS made an adjustment to its EUR/USD short-term fair value estimate,Is Jufeng precious metals reliable? now set at approximately 1.08, a rise from the previous estimate of around 1.06. This revision is attributed mainly to the decline in U.S. 2-year nominal and 10-year real yields, which reacted to weaker economic data.

The current trading level of the EUR/USD, above 1.09, positions the currency pair at a premium compared to its fair value. This marks a shift from earlier in the year, when it consistently traded at a discount.

UBS noted that the premium of the EUR/USD above its fair value is not historically large. The firm suggested that diminishing U.S. exceptionalism could lead to significant capital outflows from the U.S. to Europe and other regions. Historical data from 2017 was cited when capital flows favorable to Europe resulted in the EUR/USD trading 2%-3% above the model’s estimates.

However, UBS anticipates that such asset reallocations could take months to materialize and, in the short term, there might be a corrective pullback for the EUR/USD. They previously recommended a EUR/USD call at 1.08 with a 1.0630 knock-in.

The divergence between high-beta European currencies and commodity currencies, such as the Australian dollar (AUD), has been driven by a Europe-centric USD sell-off and weaker equities. UBS addressed the underperformance of the AUD, stating that they do not believe Superannuation outflows are the primary factor at this time.

Recent data from the Australian Prudential (LON:PRU) Regulation Authority (APRA) revealed an increase in Superannuation equity FX hedge ratios, indicating net buying of AUD by these funds. Furthermore, Australia’s Q4 balance of payments data showed that equity outflows were counterbalanced by solid foreign direct investment and portfolio bond inflows.

UBS concluded that the current weakness of the AUD is more reflective of ongoing concerns about China’s economic outlook and the global cycle at large. The firm maintains the view that the backdrop for the AUD is likely to improve in the second half of the year, anticipating risk-supportive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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