Rupee dips amid strong dollar demand, RBI intervention likely By Investing.com

The is mt5 trading platform realIndian rupee experienced a slight depreciation against the U.S. dollar, influenced by weak regional currencies and a surge in dollar demand. This fall was somewhat mitigated by probable interventions from the Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI) (RBI), as indicated by dollar-selling activities by state-run banks.

According to Reuters, the rupee was trading at 86.9550 to the dollar as of 10:50 a.m. IST, a minor drop from its previous session's close of 86.8775. The daily reference rate for the dollar showed a premium of 0.30/0.50 paisa, suggesting vigorous dollar bids, according to a foreign bank trader.

However, the presence of state-run banks offering dollars around the 86.94-86.95 levels likely reflected the RBI's efforts to limit the rupee's losses, traders noted.

Asian currencies fell in the range of 0.1% to 0.4%, while the dollar index climbed about 0.3% to 107, continuing its rebound from a two-month low reached last week. Concurrently, U.S. bond yields edged up, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by four basis points to 4.51%. The 1-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose, negatively impacting dollar-rupee forward premiums.

The 1-year dollar-rupee implied yield was quoted lower by two basis points at 2.11%, marking its lowest point in over two months. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current policy rates, while expectations are growing for a potential rate cut by the RBI in its April meeting, which could exert pressure on forward rates.

Fed officials, including Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, have expressed a need for more assurance that inflation will continue to decline this year before considering any further rate reductions.

This cautious stance on rate cuts is likely to influence market dynamics in the lead-up to the RBI's April meeting, with swap dealers at banks forecasting the 1-year yield to potentially reach a support level of 1.95%.

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