Trump's tariff policy triggers global retaliation, putting service trade at risk.

In recent months, Trump has attempted to reduce the United States' large trade deficit by imposing tariffs. However, this policy overlooks another crucial role the U.S. plays in the global economy — service trade. While the U.S. imports far more goods than it exports, it holds a dominant position in the services sector. U.S. service exports span a wide range of areas from film rights and streaming subscriptions to financial consulting. Yet, Trump’s tariff policy scarcely acknowledges these services and almost entirely overlooks their value in trade negotiations.

Currently, Trump's tariff policies have elicited strong reactions from numerous global economies. Although it is more challenging to impose tariffs directly on services, other countries may retaliate through taxes, fines, or even blocking U.S. companies. For example, the European Union has recently hinted at possible actions against major U.S. tech firms in response to Trump's tariffs. Furthermore, his tariff policies might also foster a growing global consumer disdain for American brands, decreasing the demand for U.S. services. More consumers may start avoiding American banks, asset management firms, and other companies, affecting the U.S. service exports in global markets.

In reality, the U.S. service trade surplus has seen a massive increase from $77 billion in 2000 to $295 billion in 2022. For decades, the trade relationship between the U.S. and other countries maintained a certain equilibrium: other countries exported goods to the U.S., while the U.S. exported services like treasury bonds, software, and management consulting. However, with the surge in U.S. imports and the decline of domestic manufacturing, the goods trade deficit is projected to reach a record $1.21 trillion by 2024, while the services trade surplus continues to grow as a crucial pillar of the U.S. economy.

Trump's tariff policy could stir more resentment among other nations, posing a threat to U.S. service exports. Despite America's advantage in the global service trade, intensified anti-American sentiment and consumer boycotts of U.S. brands could severely impact American companies, particularly tech giants and financial firms, which may face reduced demand in overseas markets.

The European Union has already hinted at focusing their countermeasures on U.S. tech firms. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated that Europe has various counteraction tools at its disposal, from trade to technology and market scale, which could serve to restrain the U.S. Additionally, China has already started taking steps to reduce imports of American films in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Data reveals that Trump's tariff policy has affected the U.S. tourism industry. In the first two months of this year, the number of tourists visiting the U.S. decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, a stark contrast to the previously forecasted 8.8% growth. The continued decline in visitors from Canada and other major markets has further hampered U.S. service exports, particularly in tourism and consumer sectors.

Overall, Trump's tariff policy not only exacerbates the U.S. goods trade deficit but may also incite global anti-American sentiment, impacting the competitiveness of the U.S. service industry worldwide. As governments and consumers increasingly take measures to sidestep U.S. services, whether Trump can maintain an edge in the tariff war remains an unresolved issue.

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