Trump nominates a new Federal Reserve Board member, stirring policy expectations

Trump Announces Federal Reserve Board Nominee

On August 7th, local time, U.S. President Trump confirmed in a public address that he has nominated the current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Millan, to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board. Millan will replace Kugler, who is stepping down this month, with a term lasting until January 31, 2026. Trump also emphasized that this appointment is temporary as he continues to search for a long-term candidate to ensure that the Federal Reserve's policy direction aligns with his economic strategy.

Background: Kugler's Early Resignation

On August 1st, the Federal Reserve issued a statement announcing that Board member Adriana Kugler will officially step down on August 8th, nearly six months before her term was set to end. Kugler’s early resignation provides Trump an opportunity to adjust the composition of the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule. Market analysts have noted that this change could signal a slight shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance in the coming months.

Millan's Background and Policy Tendencies

Stephen Millan not only has a strong academic background, having completed a Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University, but also extensive experience in policy-making. He served as Senior Economic Adviser at the U.S. Treasury Department during Trump's first term and played a key role in several interdepartmental economic coordination projects.
Economists familiar with the situation believe Millan tends to be flexible in monetary policy but places a higher emphasis on alignment with the White House's economic agenda, which could pave the way for future interest rate cuts or other easing measures.

Market Reaction and Analysis

Following the announcement, U.S. bond markets experienced short-term volatility, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds edging down slightly. The U.S. dollar index remained relatively stable as investors awaited Millan's public stance on future monetary policy.
Several investment banks believe that Millan's inclusion could enhance the President’s influence over the Federal Reserve, especially against a backdrop where Trump has frequently criticized current interest rate levels as too high. This appointment has also sparked renewed debate over the Federal Reserve's independence.

Federal Reserve Independence and Policy Direction

Trump has repeatedly stated his desire for more aggressive monetary easing to support his economic growth and employment strategy. With changes in Federal Reserve Board seats, his indirect influence over monetary policy-making is likely to increase.
However, some market participants warn that if the Federal Reserve's decisions are perceived as politically influenced, it may undermine international investors' confidence in the U.S. financial system, which could impact the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar.

Future Points of Interest

Next, Millan's nomination requires Senate confirmation. It is expected that hearings will involve heated discussions about his positions on inflation, interest rates, and financial regulation. Additionally, the "long-term successor" mentioned by Trump will become a focal point of external interest.
In a context of slowing global economic growth and divergent policies among major central banks, any personnel or stance changes within the Federal Reserve could trigger sensitive reactions in capital markets.

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