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Recession fears? Much ado about nothing By
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Introduction-- The weaker July nonfarm payrolls had many hitting the panic button on risk assets and calling for ...
-- The Foreign exchange trading platforms permitted by the stateweaker July nonfarm payrolls had many hitting the panic button on risk assets and calling for a Fed rescue with aggressive rate cuts in upcoming meetings, but some experts flag distortions in the data and aren't ready to jump on the recession bandwagon.
The significant decline pushed the job growth below the breakeven rate employment growth, or the pace required to ensure that the job gains keep up with the pick-up in population growth to avoid a big downtick in the unemployment rate.
The Fed's seasonal adjustments aim to filter out distortions
Jefferies agrees and believes that while rate cuts are likely coming in September and December, it doesn't "think that the Fed will continue on a meeting by meeting pace of cuts thereafter," as there is no evidence to suggest a recession is on the horizon.
"The market is pricing in a path of rate cuts that the Fed will only meet if there is evidence that the economy is falling into a recession. Right now, there is no evidence to support that," Jefferies said.
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