U.S. September PCE Data Preview: Can Gold Break $2800 Today?

The Can the money be recovered if the black platform is defrauded and reported to the police?PCE data is the inflation indicator most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. It reflects changes in consumer spending across various goods and services. Given the complex state of the U.S. economy and the upcoming presidential election, the market is highly focused on the PCE data set to be released today. This report becomes increasingly significant as inflation rates gradually approach the Fed's target level.

Market Expectations for PCE Data

Currently, the market widely anticipates that the September PCE price index will show a monthly increase of 0.2%and an annual rate of 2.1%. 

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%month-over-month, although its annual rate may slightly ease to2.6%. This indicates that while overall inflation pressures are easing, they still exhibit stickiness.

Importantly, the easing of inflation does not eliminate the possibility of the Fed adopting a more accommodative policy in the future. Many analysts believe that the current economic situation requires the Fed to balance achieving its inflation targets with maintaining a healthy labor market. This uncertainty makes the interpretation of the PCE data complex, as investors hope to gauge the Fed's next moves based on these figures.

Potential Impact of PCE Data on Gold

With the release of the PCE data, market volatility could be significant. If the PCE price index falls below expectations, especially if the core inflation metric is below 0.2%, the market may interpret this as reduced inflation pressure, supporting the Fed's continued rate cuts. In this scenario, demand for gold could increase, potentially pushing prices above the psychological level of $2800 per ounce.

However, if the PCE data exceeds expectations, particularly if the core PCE rises significantly, the market may expect the Fed to implement a tighter monetary policy, putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Investors should approach the data cautiously, as uncertainty is a constant in the market.

Considerations

Heavy economic data releases often prompt quick and intense reactions in financial markets. If the actual numbers deviate significantly from expectations, it could lead to major market volatility. Therefore, traders and investors should pay extra attention to risk management around data releases to avoid unexpected losses.

Gold Price Trend Analysis

On Thursday (October 31), spot gold prices briefly hit the $2790 mark, setting a new historical high. Gold's strong performance is driven by multiple factors, including uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and rising geopolitical risks. As demand for safe-haven assets increases, gold's appeal as a safe haven becomes clearer.

Some analysts note that regardless of whether gold rises or falls, traders are eager to buy, keeping pullbacks limited and consolidations tight. Currently, although the technical indicators on the daily gold chart are in the overbought territory, they do not indicate a depletion of upward momentum, suggesting that prices may still achieve higher historical peaks, with bulls eyeing $2800 per ounce as the next target. 

Additionally, political uncertainty and the Fed's rate-cutting policies could further drive gold prices upward, possibly even reaching $2850 per ounce in the short term. 

Conversely, if gold fails to break through resistance near $2790, it may trigger a pullback, with the primary support around$2758.

Latest Important Support and Resistance Levels for Gold:

- Support Levels: $2770.90, $2757.30, $2742.50

- Resistance Levels: $2790.00, $2810.00, $2825.00

(This content is for sharing market news and commentary and does not constitute investment advice.)

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