Barclays shifts view on EUR, sees limited rally potential By Investing.com

Barclays analysts provided insights into the current market dynamics,Foreign exchange trading noting a significant shift in focus from tariff dominance to growth considerations.

The analysts observed that the erratic implementation of tariffs by the U.S. administration has diminished the credibility of such threats as a market driver. In contrast, Europe has attracted attention with Germany’s announcement of a substantial fiscal stimulus package, which marks a potential shift in fiscal policy that could favor the European economy. This change comes amid a period of weaker data from the U.S.

Barclays highlighted that while multiple factors are influencing the U.S. dollar’s value, recent developments in Europe have notably reduced the likelihood of the euro reaching parity with the dollar.

The analysts pointed out that local fiscal measures could help mitigate the adverse effects of potential tariff impacts on foreign exchange rates and economic output. They also noted that fiscal policy has been a significant factor in the divergence of neutral interest rates, which has historically supported the dollar.

However, Barclays also cautioned that the potential for a continued euro rally might be limited. The initial phase of euro-positive repricing in European rate markets is likely over, and market sentiment is rapidly turning against the dollar.

Despite these factors, the analysts emphasized that tariff risks remain and could necessitate a considerable premium, especially for currencies and regions still facing growth challenges and the possibility of negative repercussions from a U.S. or global economic downturn.

Based on these assessments, Barclays recommends investors to consider short positions in the Chinese yuan (CNH) against the dollar, suggesting that the yuan’s tariff premium is underpriced compared to the euro and that it faces additional growth headwinds.

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