Why Citi analysts say shelter inflation may see volatility in the coming months By

-- Headline US consumer prices rose by 0.2% on si strength foreign exchange investment platforma monthly basis in August, matching July's rate, but the core figure accelerated slightly, suggesting some stickiness in otherwise easing inflationary pressures.

The month-on-month headline US consumer price index met economists' expectations, along with the annual figure, which slowed to 2.5% from 2.9% in July.

Meanwhile, so-called "core" consumer prices, which strip out more volatile items like food and fuel, edged up by 0.3% month-on-month, faster than estimates of 0.2%. Year-over-year, the reading came in at 3.2%, in line with forecasts and equaling July's pace.

In a note to clients earlier this week, analysts at Citi noted that much of the core number's strength was derived from a "surprisingly" robust increase in shelter costs. In particular, they noted a 0.5% jump in the index for owners' equivalent rent, up from 0.4% in July.

Owners' equivalent rent, a component of the consumer price index, is an estimate of how much it would cost a homeowner to rent out their house. Theoretically, the measure is supposed to track changes in real estate market values, although its efficacy has received skepticism from some economists.

"The acceleration in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) was surprising but we still expect that the last few months simply reflects the start of a more volatile than usual period for OER," the Citi analysts said. They added they expect to see oscillation between stronger and weaker OER readings in the coming months, with the gauge averaging out at around 0.2%-0.3%.

In any event, the analysts said the relatively smaller weighting shelter receives in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, as well as "softer medical" costs, should mean that the measure will be more "modest" than its CPI counterpart. The underlying PCE result, which the Federal Reserve uses as a key gauge of inflation, is due out next Friday.

The PCE release will be one of the first data points on inflation available to the Fed after the central bank chose to roll out a super-sized 50-basis point cut in interest rates on Wednesday.

Along with the first drawdown since March 2020, an updated "dot plot" of officials' policy forecasts showed that policymakers now expect the benchmark fed funds rate to dip to 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of 2024. This would suggest either another jumbo half-point rate cut or two smaller quarter-point cuts at the Fed's two remaining gatherings this year.

At a press conference following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about a recession, pointing to broadly cooling price gains and a "solid" labor market.

"The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there," Powell said.

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