Goldman Sachs: Trump's Tariff Policy May Slow Down U.S. Economic Growth

As Trump's tougher tariff policies take effect,Jinsheng foreign exchange there is a growing wave of anti-American sentiment worldwide. In addition to retaliatory tariffs by various governments, consumers are spontaneously participating in a "Boycott America Movement," refraining from buying American products and traveling to the US. Goldman Sachs warned in its latest report released on Monday that this sentiment could significantly impact the US economy. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2025, the "Boycott America Movement" could reduce the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.1% to 0.3%, translating to a potential economic loss of $28 billion to $83 billion.

Goldman's analysis indicates that survey data reveals a significant number of consumers, especially in Canada, have begun boycotting US goods. For instance, 53% of Canadian consumers reported they are engaging in some form of consumer boycott, with products like American whiskey brand Jack Daniels being removed from shelves. Brown-Forman Corporation stated that although they anticipated potential retaliatory tariffs from Canada, the reality has been far worse than expected.

Trump's increased tariff measures have escalated trade tensions. The US President previously announced that the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy, set to take effect on April 2, will mark what he calls America’s "Liberation Day," imposing a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles. Goldman Sachs stated that these aggressive tariff actions have exacerbated the global negative perception of American companies and the nation’s image. Notably, brands closely associated with Trump, like Tesla, have seen a significant decline in consumer goodwill and purchase intent.

A more severe problem could be the impact of Trump's policies on the tourism industry. Data analyzed by Goldman Sachs shows a drop in the number of foreign tourists visiting the US, particularly from the EU and Canada. The number of foreign arrivals at the 12 major US airports declined by 11% year-on-year, while departures increased by 5%. The tourism industry contributes about 0.7% to the US GDP, with annual spending by EU and Canadian tourists reaching approximately $50 billion. Reports from Air Canada and AccorHotels Group indicate a notable decline in travel demand from Europe to the US, especially during the summer, with bookings down by 25%.

Goldman further noted that apart from the negative impact of tariffs on exports, these factors are expected to result in US GDP growth falling short of common expectations. Consequently, Goldman has revised its 2025 US economic growth forecast down from the previous 2.4% to 1.7%. This aligns with forecasts from other Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, highlighting the gradual drag on economic growth due to trade policies.

In summary, Trump's tariff policies and the ensuing global reactions have had a noticeable impact on the US economy, with warnings from Goldman Sachs and other institutions suggesting that the American economy may face further challenges ahead.

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