Surge in Tariffs Boosts Finances, Short-Term Benefit for U.S. Government

In the first half of 2025, the U.S. experienced a structural highlight in its financial situation, most notably the explosive growth in tariff revenues. In June alone, tariffs brought in over $27 billion, turning that month's fiscal deficit into a surplus. This trend continued throughout the first nine months of the fiscal year, with tariff revenues surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time.

The Treasury Department's analysis pointed out that this achievement was mainly due to the current administration's expanding coverage of tariffs and increased rates on some sensitive goods. In the short term, this has provided an unexpected boost to the U.S. government's budget balance, easing the financial strain caused by a combination of inflation and deficits.

Government Eyes $300 Billion Target, Doubts Over Policy Tool Effectiveness

Treasury Secretary Bessent recently stated that if the current collection trend continues, annual tariff revenue could exceed the $300 billion mark. This prediction reflects the government's confidence in its tariff policies. However, there are market concerns about the sustainability and effectiveness of these policy tools.

Industry experts point out that while expanding the range of taxable items or raising tax rates could boost short-term income, it might squeeze the profit margins of import-export businesses, affect overall trade vitality, and even lead to increased supply chain costs, undermining domestic consumer confidence.

Revenue Growth Masks Long-Term Fiscal Deficit Risks

Although tariffs provide structural benefits, data shows that the U.S. overall fiscal situation remains under pressure. In the first nine months, while revenue increased by over $250 billion, spending grew even faster, particularly in social security, healthcare, and defense, with cumulative spending growth exceeding $310 billion.

As of now, the 2025 fiscal year deficit has reached $1.3 trillion, a further increase from last year. The existence of a structural deficit means that even record-breaking tariffs are unlikely to fundamentally change the fiscal imbalance.

Short-Term Dollar Benefit, Long-Term Trends Limited

Benefiting from improved fiscal surplus expectations and foreign capital inflows, the dollar exchange rate has shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks. Analysts believe that strong customs revenues have injected confidence in the market regarding the U.S. debt repayment ability, boosting the dollar's short-term performance.

However, if tariffs lead to slower consumer spending or production costs being passed on to end prices, it could trigger renewed core inflation pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight policy stance. This could potentially impact the real economy, weakening the dollar's medium to long-term support.

Rising Risks in International Trade, Limited Policy Maneuverability

More concerning is that the large-scale U.S. tariff policy has caught the attention of many countries. The EU, Canada, and China, among other major trading partners, have recently issued "countermeasure" signals, with some countries evaluating the initiation of retaliatory tariff mechanisms or re-examining bilateral agreements with the U.S.

Moreover, if future trade conditions are further tightened by the Trump administration, it might exacerbate global supply chain fluctuations, placing American businesses at a disadvantage in the international market, and increasing the difficulty of future policy adjustments.

The Price and Opportunity of High Tariffs Coexist

The U.S.'s record tariff income has provided a short-term boost to its financial situation and strengthened government confidence in policy implementation at the political level. However, whether the heavy tax burden can continue to exert a positive effect remains to be cautiously evaluated. If future tariff policies cannot be coordinated with spending control and trade negotiation mechanisms, long-term fiscal sustainability in the U.S. may still be pessimistic.

Tariffs, as a double-edged sword, are both a fiscal supplement and an economic variable. Whether the $300 billion fiscal "new pillar" can remain stable depends on policy coordination ability, changes in the external environment, and the long-term performance of domestic economic resilience.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.