[Morning Session] Turmoil Resurfaces in the Middle East, Risk Aversion Persists

Gold Market:

After two relatively quiet weeks of data,Which platform is better, Forex or FXCM? this week will enter a "busy time" again. This Friday (July 5), the U.S. June Non-farm Payroll report will be released. Before that, there are also JOLTS job openings, ADP data, and initial jobless claims data. Investors should be able to make more accurate predictions about the Fed's rate cut expectations based on various employment data this week.

Last week, Morgan Stanley stated that key data further indicating that inflation in the U.S. and the Eurozone is cooling down may lead to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in September. The Eurozone's inflation in May recorded a 2.6% year-over-year increase, higher than April's 2.4%, but this rebound was not unexpected by the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. core PCE price index for May showed a month-over-month slowdown.

Technical Analysis: Last week, the gold price closed the week with a bullish doji star. The past two weeks have formed a consolidation pattern, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of last week's close, the gold price failed to stand above the key level of $2334 but held above the critical support of $2316.

Crude Oil Market:

Last weekend, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant, during an inspection of Israel's northern air defense units, stated that Israel does not want to go to war with Hezbollah in Lebanon but is preparing for it. Gallant acknowledged that taking military action against Lebanon is not easy, but he believes that Lebanon and Hezbollah face more challenging conditions.

In response to the threat from Israeli Defense Minister Gallant, Iran's UN delegation immediately stated on social media that although Iran considers Israel's threat to attack Lebanon as a psychological war, if Israel launches a full-scale military action against Lebanon, "all options, including all resistance fronts, will be fully engaged."

Technical Analysis: Oil prices rose 1.08% last week, marking a third consecutive weekly gain. Although it did not form a continuous upward pattern, the MACD indicator did not diverge, suggesting a continued bullish outlook. The daily upward trend remains intact, with a focus on the critical level of $80.78 for future direction.

【Important Disclaimer: The above content and opinions are provided by Zhisheng Research for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.】

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.