Putin supports a ceasefire, but with preconditions.

On March 13, during a press conference following a meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko, Russian President Putin stated that Russia supports in principle the US proposal for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. However, he emphasized that the ceasefire must address the root causes of the conflict and called for clarification on several key issues. This statement both signals goodwill towards Washington and adds uncertainty to the future of US-Russia relations.

Putin's "Conditional" Support

Putin indicated that the ceasefire must ensure Ukraine does not use the opportunity to regroup its military forces and emphasized that the ceasefire should lead to lasting peace rather than a temporary reprieve. He particularly highlighted the urgency of issues such as how to implement ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and how to ensure both parties fulfill their commitments. This implies that Russia's support for the ceasefire is not unconditional but is based on maintaining its strategic interests.

The Complex U.S.-Russia Dynamic

Putin's remarks are seen by many as an expression of goodwill towards Washington, potentially prompting further dialogue between U.S. and Russian leaders. U.S. President Trump responded positively, calling Putin's stance "encouraging" and expressing hope that Moscow will take the "right actions." Nonetheless, Ukraine remains skeptical of Putin's declaration, suspecting that Russia might be using ceasefire negotiations to buy time to consolidate its battlefield advantages. This divergence in views poses significant challenges to the eventual conclusion of a ceasefire agreement.

Economic Cooperation and Energy Negotiations

Besides the ceasefire issue, Putin also mentioned the possibility of Western companies returning to the Russian market, but stressed that no special treatments would be offered. Moreover, he stated that if the U.S. and Russia can reach an agreement on energy cooperation, Russia's gas supply to Europe might resume. These remarks indicate Russia's hope to leverage its energy resources as a diplomatic tool to gain greater initiative in the geopolitical landscape. However, European sanctions policies and security considerations remain major obstacles facing Russia.

Impact and Outlook

Putin's "conditional" support for the ceasefire proposal has kept market risk aversion high, with gold prices receiving support. However, if U.S.-Russia relations further ease or a breakthrough in energy cooperation is achieved, this could diminish demand for safe havens, exerting some pressure on the precious metal market. The progress of a future Ukraine ceasefire agreement will depend on whether the U.S. and Russia can reach consensus on core issues, potentially having profound effects on global geopolitics and financial markets.

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