Bank of America sees weaker dollar as Fed cuts rates amid rising inflation By Investing.com

Investing.com - Bank of America analysts predict the U.S. dollar will weaken if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in 2025 amid rising year-over-year inflation,Futures mt4 software download according to a research note released Wednesday.

The bank notes this combination of Fed rate cuts during rising inflation is historically rare, with the last occurrence between the second half of 2007 and first half of 2008. During that period, rate cuts amid rising inflation suppressed real policy rates for the U.S. and led to a weaker dollar.

Bank of America points out that the year-to-date dollar selloff has its highest correlation with 2007 out of all years since 1973. Historical patterns show dollar depreciation was sharper before Fed cuts, with bearishness continuing for three months after rate reductions.

In the near term, the bank observes a broad dollar downtrend re-emerged following the July non-farm payrolls report. Current signals from foreign exchange trend and value factors are consistently bullish for the NZD/USD pair in G10 currencies.

Bank of America’s factor-based quantitative framework suggests the New Zealand dollar may have additional upside amid broad-based U.S. dollar depreciation, though it cautions that dovish guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week could limit NZD gains against other G10 currency peers.

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